But a new report from Advanced Automotive Batteries of Oregon House, California, warns that some of Tesla’s goals may be harder to reach than the company is letting on. Not only will competitors step up with improved longer-range, less costly low-energy battery cells to challenge the lower-cost Tesla Model 3, but the report predicts the car that’s supposed to bring Tesla to the masses will either get shorter range than expected or will cost more than the $35,000 price target Tesla is aiming for.

Anderman, who correctly predicted years ago U.S. government efforts to stimulate a lithium-ion battery manufacturing industry in Michigan, says in his report that bringing the cost of electric car batteries below $200 per kWh is “unlikely before 2020.”

If this assessment is accurate, Tesla will have to sell a Model 3 with a range of less than 200 mpc, or raise the starting price to $50,000, roughly the cost of a BMW 5 Series luxury car. “I wish Tesla proves me wrong and their success is larger than what my study forecasts, but I have provided in the study the most realistic, unbiased, expert assessment I could,” Anderman told IBTimes.