Too Many Batteries? - Tesla Model III Forum, Tesla Model 3 Forums
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post #1 of 5 (permalink) Old 10-01-2014, 12:44 PM Thread Starter
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Too Many Batteries?

Lux Research thinks so. TSLA is betting that ramping up scale will drive down the cost of batteries, fair point, but....

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Tesla Motors’ plan to build a new 35 GWh lithium-ion cell production facility – dubbed the Gigafactory – for electric vehicles that will bring about only a modest reduction in battery costs, and create significant overcapacity, given likely sales of less than half the targeted 500,000, according to Lux Research.

Tesla and its partner, Panasonic, will contribute about 45% and 35%, respectively, of the initial $4 billion required to build the Gigafactory, proposed to go on-stream in 2017. An analysis by Lux Research projects sales of only 240,000 cars in 2020, leading to razor-thin margins to Panasonic and 57% overcapacity…

This 57% overcapacity is unlikely to be filled either by rival carmakers or Tesla’s own plans to sell some stationary battery packs to developers like SolarCity (SCTY) for residential photovoltaic integration and other uses.
???

http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowat...enough-demand/
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post #2 of 5 (permalink) Old 10-01-2014, 05:54 PM
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Hmm, I just assumed that there would be demand for all those batteries between cars and other things that need nice batteries. It would be a bit of a disaster for Tesla if the battery factory doesn't make them any money. Seems to me that would really really hurt them after the huge amount of money they will invest in this factory.

It may be the case that they want to have the room to produce 500,000 a year but will start smaller. Battery demand should grow into the future and if Tesla built a factory that only met demand in 2017 then by 2025 they would have to build yet another factory.
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post #3 of 5 (permalink) Old 10-01-2014, 08:10 PM
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I came across this interesting comment from that article:


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Jimmy Limo wrote:
What Lux and the rest of the Tesla bears don’t take into account is the rapid evolution of batteries, which Tesla will be at the forefront. Supercapacitors are the future of batteries and just last week researchers announced that they can use HEMP instead of graphene. Using hemp will be 1000 times cheaper. The batteries will hold greater charge with less size and weight. By the time Tesla’s gigafactory is up and running, the price will drop significantly and the cars will have a range of 500+ miles. Elon’s no fool. Don’t bet against him.


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post #4 of 5 (permalink) Old 10-10-2014, 06:01 PM
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Originally Posted by DWMTM View Post
I came across this interesting comment from that article:
Fair points indeed, and locking the govvy into the deal ensures he is essentially government sponsored, they will do everything they can to ensure batteries are dominant and not some other emerging technology. Amazing how that works eh...
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post #5 of 5 (permalink) Old 10-10-2014, 09:25 PM
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Make sure they are dominant and make sure they get their cut out of it.



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